Fed Holds Rates a Fourth Time as 2026 Rate Forecasts Move Higher

The FOMC voted 12-0 on June 17th to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% for a fourth straight meeting — new Chair Kevin Warsh’s first at the helm. Warsh shortened the post-meeting statement and dropped rate-cut language, and futures markets now price a possible hike by October.

The median year-end 2026 rate projection jumped to 3.8%, from 3.4% in March, as the Fed raised its inflation forecast and trimmed GDP growth expectations, keeping borrowing costs elevated and cap rate compression on hold across every property type.

Commercial property prices rose 1.6% year-over-year in May, the strongest gain since October 2022, though performance split by sector: suburban office led at 4.6%, industrial held a 10.0% advance since mid-2022, while apartments fell 1.5%.

Multifamily is turning a corner,  rent growth accelerated to 1.2% year-over-year, and independent landlord collections rose above year-ago levels for the first time in nearly three years. Office remains the weak spot, with CMBS delinquencies at 11.53%, still the highest of any property type.

For Las Vegas owners: financing costs aren’t easing soon, but multifamily and industrial fundamentals continue to outperform office.

Connect with an SVN advisor to talk through what this data means for your portfolio or your next transaction.