Our September 24, 2026 Economic Update covers the Fed’s rate increase, new FOMC projections, and where commercial property prices and loan distress are heading.
On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, its first increase since July 2023. Yet core CPI came in at 2.4% year over year, the lowest annual core reading since March 2021. For Las Vegas commercial real estate owners and investors, that tension defines the months ahead: underlying inflation is cooling, but borrowing costs are moving the other way.
The hike followed an August CPI print that beat expectations, with headline prices up 0.4% for the month and 3.4% year over year. Energy drove the jump. Renewed conflict in Iran pushed the energy index up 2.1%, and gasoline alone accounted for roughly a third of the monthly increase. A strong August jobs report, with payrolls up 162,000, gave the Fed room to act.
The Fed’s new projections suggest this isn’t a one-off. The median year-end 2026 federal funds projection rose to 4.1%, implying one more hike before year-end, and most of the committee doesn’t expect inflation to reach its 2.0% target until 2029. With the 10-year Treasury closing at 5.01% on decision day, the financing baseline has reset higher for every major property type. Higher-for-longer is no longer a phase to wait out. It’s the multi-year operating environment.
Pricing data shows how unevenly that pressure lands. According to the MSCI-RCA Commercial Property Price Index, US commercial property prices rose just 0.1% year over year in August, but CBD office led all property types at 9.4% annual growth. Apartment prices fell 4.7%, their 10th straight month of annual declines, and now sit 23% below their July 2022 peak.
Loan performance tells a similar split story. Trepp reports the CMBS delinquency rate slipped to 7.85%, while the special servicing rate climbed to its highest level since February 2013, with $3.16 billion across 32 loans transferred in August alone. Lenders are moving troubled loans early, before they go delinquent, which points to more distress still working through the pipeline. Industrial was one of only two sectors where special servicing improved, falling to 1.27%.
For owners with loans maturing in the next 12 to 24 months, refinancing plans built around rate cuts need a second look. Underwrite at today’s rates, not the ones the market expected at the start of 2026. For investors, the gap between sectors is where opportunity sits: apartment values are well off their peak, and rising special servicing could bring more motivated sellers to market. From Henderson to North Las Vegas, the deals that pencil will be the ones underwritten for higher-for-longer from day one. SVN | The Equity Group tracks these shifts so our clients can move with a plan instead of a forecast.
Connect with an SVN | The Equity Group advisor to talk through what this data means for your portfolio or your next transaction.
