The Market Is Sending Mixed Signals

This market isn’t good or bad right now — it’s fractured. And where you’re positioned within that fracture is everything.

Industrial continues to separate from the pack, sitting 13% above its mid-2022 levels while every other major property type has declined over the same period. Apartments just posted their first year-over-year price gain in three years encouraging, but the index is still 18% off peak. Retail is pulling back after a solid run. Office remains a zip-code story: suburban holds, CBD doesn’t.

The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% in March and revised inflation projections upward. Nearly a third of committee members expect zero cuts in 2026. Financing costs aren’t easing anytime soon, and your deal math needs to reflect that.

One thing flying under the radar: Powell flagged that AI data center investment could push the structural neutral rate higher — permanently. If you’re underwriting long-hold assets, that belongs in your assumptions.

Recession probability sits at 32% per a Wall Street Journal survey of 50 economists. Not the base case, but not dismissible either, especially with Iran-driven energy risk and trade policy still unresolved.

New home sales cratered 17.6% in January. Consumer sentiment hit its lowest reading of the year. Net lease structures are quietly being rewritten with shorter terms and escalation clauses replacing flat-rent contracts.

The data is noisy, but it’s readable, if you’re looking at the right numbers. Connect  with an SVN advisor to talk through what this data means for your portfolio or your next transaction.